Airfare Rates Prediction

airfare rates prediction
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October 27, 2009

Germany, United Kingdom, Mexico, Canada Bookings and Projected Bookings to the United States
Commerce Travel Trade Barometer to also Track Travel from Japan

Germany Travel Trade Barometer: Signs of Positive Bookings
After sharp declines at the beginning of 2009, Germany bookings to the United States in the second quarter of 2009 were reported to be on par with second quarter 2008 bookings, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce sponsored Germany Travel Trade Barometer. On average, the third and fourth quarter of 2009 bookings were also projected to be about the same as they were last year. The return of travelers from Germany is a good sign that the U.S. travel and tourism industry is beginning to recover from the economic downturn. The exchange rate, accommodation rates, and competitive airfares are projected to be the top motivators for travel to the United States over the next six months from Germany.

United Kingdom Travel Trade Barometer: 2009 Bookings Predicted to be Down
United Kingdom bookings to the United States decreased in the second quarter of 2009 and are projected to continue to be down through the end of the year, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce sponsored United Kingdom Travel Trade Barometer. On average, United Kingdom bookings to the United States decreased from four to nine percent in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008. The United Kingdom is projected to continue to send fewer visitors to the United States during the second half of 2009. The primary barriers for travel in the second half of 2009 are the global economy, competitive promotion by other long-haul destinations, and the economy in the United Kingdom.

Mexico Travel Trade Barometer: 2009 Bookings Continue to Contract
Mexico bookings to the United States decreased in the second quarter of 2009 and are projected to continue to be down through the end of the year, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce sponsored Mexico Travel Trade Barometer. On average, bookings to the United States decreased from 10 to 15 percent in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008. Mexico is projected to continue to send fewer visitors to the United States during the second half of 2009. The primary factors driving travel down continue to be the global economy, the economy in Mexico, and visa processing time. It is worth noting that on average, the travel trade rated pandemic/epidemic issues (e.g., H1N1 Flu) as a minimum deterrent for travel to the United States.

Canada Travel Trade Barometer: 2009 Bookings on the Decline
Canada bookings to the United States decreased in the second quarter of 2009 and are projected to continue to be down through the end of the year, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce sponsored Canada Travel Trade Barometer. On average, bookings to the United States decreased from 10 to 15 percent in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008. Trade projected bookings for both the third and fourth quarter to be lower than 2008. The primary factors driving travel down continue to be the global economy and Canada’s own economy. Some trade reported that the exchange rate was a motivator, however, on average it was rated to have no impact through the end of 2009.

Japan Travel Trade Barometer: Launched in September 2009
The Japan Travel Trade Barometer was launched in September 2009 to complement the existing programs in Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Mexico. With the addition of Japan, the Barometer program reports on 73 percent of the total visitor arrivals to the United States. Japan is the fourth largest travel market for the United States and the expansion of the Travel Trade Barometer into Japan will help U.S. companies effectively track Japan travel demand and bookings, and the factors impacting travel from this critical market.

BACKGROUD AND SOURCE:
Travel Market Insights conducts the Germany, United Kingdom, Mexico, Canada, and Japan Travel Trade Barometer programs. The U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, is a sponsor and was the initial developer of the barometer program. The Barometer program is conducted with support from the U.S. and Foreign Commercial Service and various Visit USA Committees and additional sponsors.
The Travel Trade Barometer survey is conducted on a quarterly basis in Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Canada and Japan and is available through subscription. Reports sent to subscribers include additional information, such as:

• Bookings – looking at the past quarter and the next two quarters for U.S. and competitive regional destinations;
• Short term bookings for more than five specific categories; and
• Over 15 motivators or deterrents for travel to the United States.

October 27, 2009
U.S. COMMERCE DEPARTMENT FORECASTS REBOUND IN INTERNATIONAL
TRAVEL TO THE UNITED STATES BY 2010
The U.S. Department of Commerce projects international travel to the United States to
regain its footing by 2010 following its first forecasted year of decline (2009) since 2003.
Reflective of the current global economic environment, international travel is forecasted
to decline by 8 percent in 2009. A 3 percent rebound is projected for the United States
by the end of 2010, followed by 5 percent annual increases through 2013.
In 2009 twenty-two of the top 25 arrival markets will post declines. The largest declines
in 2009 will be from Taiwan (-17%), Ireland (-14%), Sweden (-13%), Mexico (-12%),
United Kingdom (-12 %), and Netherlands (-10%).
These declines come after the United States hosted a record 58 million international
visitors in 2008. The arrivals forecast for 2009-2013 predicts that the 2008 record will
be broken in 2012 and in 2013. International arrivals will reach almost 64 million, an
increase of 9 percent between 2008 and 2013.
The U.S. travel forecast was prepared by the Department of Commerce in conjunction
with IHS Global Insight, Inc. (GII). Forecasts are derived from GII’s econometric travel
forecasting model and are based on key economic and demographic variables as well
as DOC consultation on non-economic travel factors as well as providing the count and
historical arrivals data for the United States.
Forecast Highlights by Region
North America – The top two markets generating visitors to the U.S., Canada and
Mexico, are forecasted to decline by 6 percent and 12 percent, respectively, in 2009,
and to grow by 13 and 5 percent, respectively, from 2008 to 2013. Canada and Mexico
are forecast to set new records in 2011 and 2013, respectively.
Europe – Visitors from Europe are expected to drop by 8 percent in 2009, the second
largest decline among the world regions. Very small growth is forecast for 2010,
followed by slow growth for the next three years. By 2013 arrivals from Europe will be
one percent higher than the 2008 total. The United Kingdom is projected to post a 12
percent decline in 2009. Germany, France and Italy are the next largest arrivals
markets within the region. Germany is forecasted to decline by eight percent in 2009,
and France and Italy will fall by 1 and 6 percent, respectively. Among the top European
markets, five countries are projected to have a 2013 visitor volume level that remains
below the 2008 level—United Kingdom, Spain, Ireland, Sweden, and Belgium.
Asia-Pacific – Asia is projected to generate a decline of 11 percent in 2009-—the
largest decline among the world regions—and then post four-to-seven percent annual
increases over the next several years. The largest Asian market and second-largest
overseas market, Japan, is forecast to drop by 13 percent in 2009, and then recover in
2010. Japan will continue to post slow growth through 2013, so that the United States
will host 3.1 million Japanese visitors, down four percent from 2008. Korea will post a
large decline in 2009 (-9%), and Australia, India and China will register smaller declines,
but by 2013 all of the top Asian markets will post double digit increases when compared
to 2008. China will increase by 64 percent compared to 2008, India (50%), Korea
(12%), and Australia (16%).
South America – South America is projected to increase by one percent in 2009, and
remain a leader in the growth in arrivals for the next several years. By 2013 South
America will generate more than 3.2 million visitors, a 27 percent increase compared to
2008, and the highest growth rate among all of the world regions. Brazil, the largest
source market from within the region, is expected to be up 6 percent in 2009. By 2013
the United States may host a record 1.1 million Brazilian visitors, a 41% increase over
2008. Argentina is forecast to post an increase of 5 percent in 2009 and increase a
total of 30 percent by 2013. Venezuela and Colombia will register small declines in
2009, but rebound over the next several years.
Travel and tourism represents one of the top services exports for the United States and
has produced a travel balance of trade surplus since 1989. For official information on
international travel to the United States, including additional information on the forecast
for travel to the United States for 2009-2013 for all world regions and over 40 countries.

The Office of Travel and Tourism Industries publishes visitation data for more than 200
countries that generate visitors to the United States, as well as visitation data for each
world region. To learn more about international visitation and visitor spending in the
United States.

Visit: tviexpress.com/mcalpine

Airfare Questions:

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